Project Failure Source 4 - Variable Lock-In

Note: This posting is a continuation to the topic posted on June 24th and relates to my project management workshop titled "10 Ways to Increase Your Project's Success". In this post I discuss one of the sources of project failure and how we may mitigate this risk to our projects.

Source 4 - Variable Lock-In
Variable lock-in is closely related to the previous issue of expectations management but addresses issues that occur early on in the project. When projects are first evaluated and approved these projects are commonly based upon very rough estimates for the scope, budget, and schedule. The project stakeholders do not know enough details to provide a refined estimate early on in the project and must rely on approximations. The project variables (scope, budget, and schedule) may appear on the project charter or statement of work and become visible to all stakeholders. As result of this visibility, these initial variables are often used as the baseline expectations for evaluating the project's success.

Effect on Project
Quite often the initial scope and level of effort required for a project are underestimated during the initial project definition. The initial budget and schedule are based on the scope and level of effort estimated and therefore, if the scope and level of effort are underestimated, the corresponding budget and schedule are also underestimated. This initial lock-in leaves the project team to complete more work without sufficient resources or enough time. While the project may still execute successfully and deliver the project variables, these projects will most likely be deemed as over budget and late.

Actions Taken by the Project Manager
There are two approaches that should be taken to deal with variable lock-in. The first is to have the organization come to an understanding that the variables defined in the statement of work or project charter are simply approximations. These variable approximations allow the organization to compare projects using relative variable values but the organization should not accept these variables as final. The project team should be required to conduct a more detailed analysis to provide more accurate estimates of the scope and level of effort and the corresponding budget and schedule. The second approach should use the same further analysis concept but rather approve the project based on the initial approximations, provide only approval to conduct the detailed analysis to formulate a more accurate scope, budget and schedule. The results of this analysis can then be evaluated for full approval of the project. Either approach considers the first estimates as guesses and require further analysis. The second approach allows the organization a creeping commitment to the project in order to understand the needs before fully funding and approving the project.

Next Source: Estimating Techniques